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Anthropogenic climate change will dramatically alter species distributions. The rate and magnitude of range shifts, however, will differ among taxa, resulting in altered patterns of co-occurrence and interspecific interactions. We examined potential climate-mediated breeding range shifts among North American wood-warblers (Parulidae), a speciose avian family likely to be especially impacted by such changes due to high levels of interspecific competition and hybridization. We used publicly available species distribution model (SDM) range outputs to compare current ranges and patterns of sympatry among warbler species to future ranges and sympatry under 1.5°C, 2.0°C, and 3.0°C of average global warming. Range overlap among species and number of sympatric species are expected to decrease significantly in future warming scenarios, and unequal range shifts will alter the composition of warbler communities. On average, climate change will result in net decreases in the local species diversity; each warbler species is predicted to gain sympatry with approximately 1 new species and lose sympatry with approximately 2 species. Climate-mediated changes are predicted to differ among warblers in different regions of North America, with greatest impacts on eastern and boreal forest species. Our findings suggest that climate change will alter the diversity of wood-warbler communities during this century. Targeted monitoring of these changing interspecific relationships, especially for antagonistic interactions or hybridization between newly sympatric species, will be crucial for prioritizing particular species and regions in future conservation or management efforts.

 

Abstract. The fortedata R package is an open data notebook from the Forest Resilience ThresholdExperiment (FoRTE) – a modeling and manipulative field experiment that teststhe effects of disturbance severity and disturbance type on carbon cyclingdynamics in a temperate forest. Package data consist of measurements ofcarbon pools and fluxes and ancillary measurements to help analyze andinterpret carbon cycling over time. Currently the package includes data andmetadata from the first three FoRTE field seasons, serves as a central,updatable resource for the FoRTE project team, and is intended as a resourcefor external users over the course of the experiment and in perpetuity.Further, it supports all associated FoRTE publications, analyses, andmodeling efforts. This increases efficiency, consistency, compatibility, and productivity while minimizing duplicated effort and error propagation thatcan arise as a function of a large, distributed and collaborative effort.More broadly, fortedata represents an innovative, collaborative way of approachingscience that unites and expedites the delivery of complementary datasets tothe broader scientific community, increasing transparency andreproducibility of taxpayer-funded science. The fortedata package is available via GitHub:https://github.com/FoRTExperiment/fortedata (last access: 19 February 2021), and detaileddocumentation on the access, used, and applications of fortedata are available athttps://fortexperiment.github.io/fortedata/ (last access: 19 February 2021). The first publicrelease, version 1.0.1 is also archived athttps://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4399601 (Atkins et al., 2020b). All data products are also available outside of thepackage as .csv files: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.13499148.v1 (Atkins et al., 2020c). 

Abstract Climate change and other anthropogenic stressors have led to long-term changes in the thermal structure, including surface temperatures, deepwater temperatures, and vertical thermal gradients, in many lakes around the world. Though many studies highlight warming of surface water temperatures in lakes worldwide, less is known about long-term trends in full vertical thermal structure and deepwater temperatures, which have been changing less consistently in both direction and magnitude. Here, we present a globally-expansive data set of summertime in-situ vertical temperature profiles from 153 lakes, with one time series beginning as early as 1894. We also compiled lake geographic, morphometric, and water quality variables that can influence vertical thermal structure through a variety of potential mechanisms in these lakes. These long-term time series of vertical temperature profiles and corresponding lake characteristics serve as valuable data to help understand changes and drivers of lake thermal structure in a time of rapid global and ecological change.